Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
